Predictions: 2025 Golden Globes Film Winners
The 2025 Golden Globes Awards will air Sunday, January 5, on CBS and Paramount+, with host Nikki Glaser. After her recent roast of Tom Brady, I am actually looking forward to her hosting this show. Honestly, anything will be an upgrade from last year’s hosting situation with Jo Koy, who I think signed on late and ultimately was just not a match for this type of gig.
One of the most exciting elements about this year’s Golden Globes Awards is that a lot of the winner decisions feel up in the air. There are a lot of directions the winners could go, and that could mean numerous different things for this award season. The Golden Globes have evolved over the years. The voting body has undergone an overhaul of its membership, and ultimately that could shift the narrative into focus.
Emilia Perez has the most nominations on the Comedy/Musical side, and The Brutalist has the most nominations on the Drama side. Does having the most nominations mean you win the most prizes? Not always. Let’s look back over the last four years.
in 2020, Trial of the Chicago 7 and Mank had the most nominations, and they lost to Nomadland.
In 2021, Power of the Dog and Belfast each had 7 nominations, and Power took home Best Drama; Belfast only won Best Screenplay. West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up each had 4 nominations in Comedy/Musical, and West Side Story won 3 prizes, while the other two films won none. CODA, which won Best Picture at the Oscars, was not even nominated for Best Drama at the Golden Globes.
In 2022, the most-nominated film was The Banshees of Inisherin with 8, and it won 3 prizes, including Comedy/Musical Film. (Interestingly, this film gained no big awards-show traction from this, and won 0 Oscars, which was a surprise. Everything Everywhere All At Once was nominated for 6 Globes (second in this category) and won two prizes. The Fabelmans was the most-nominated drama with 5, and won 2 prizes: Picture and Director.
In 2023, the most-nominated film, Barbie, lost the most amount of steam: it had 9 nominations but only won 1 competitive Globe, for Best Song (I refuse to include the box-office achievement award). Oppenheimer was nominated for 8 awards and won 5. Oppenheimer was a sweep in the 2023 award season, and this was the beginning of that steamroll. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon had 7 nominations each, Poor Things bested Barbie for Comedy/Musical and won 2; Killers won Actress for Lily Gladstone.
So where does that leave us? The Globes do tend to spread the wealth, and Oppenheimer winning 5 awards is kind of an anomaly. The films that have the most nominations this year are: Emilia Perez (10 nominations), The Brutalist (7 nominations), Conclave (6 nominations), Anora and The Substance (5 nominations apiece). I hope there are some fun surprises, and may we get some fun wins.
Let’s dig in to my predictions!
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Best Drama Motion Picture
Nominees:
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune Part Two
Nickel Boys
September 5
I think this is ultimately a battle between the nomination leaders, The Brualist and Conclave; the remaining films in this category have 7 nominations combined between the four of them, and I would be shocked if any of them won. So where do the Globes fall between these two? The nomination leader usually wins this prize, so The Brutalist makes sense. I still have this sneaking suspicion it’s Conclave
What Will Win: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Conclave
Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama
Nominees:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
I think this is a lot harder to predict than people are willing to admit. The favorite here seems to be Brody, and he did not win a Globe for The Pianist — so this could happen, but I think there are two other very strong contenders in Chalamet and Fiennes. A Complete Unknown was clearly liked, it had 3 nominations, and Conclave had 6 (and some people are predicting Conclave to win 0 awards — I think that is possible but would not bet on it).
Who Will Win: Timothee Chalamet
Spoilers: Brody, then Fiennes
Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama
Nominees:
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Kate Winslet, Lee
The interesting thing about this category is most of these nominees are the only nomination for their films. Anderson’s film has a song nomination and Torres’ film is nominated in Best Non-English Language Film. I know many are predicting Jolie to win this, but she has had quite a poor showing with critics, the other major contender on face value seems to be Kidman, who has fared better with wins and critics nominations, but not by much. I think the true spoiler here is Fernanda Torres, and that is where I am leaning with my biggest no-guts-no-glory predictions.
Who Will Win: Fernanda Torres
Spoilers: Kidman, then Jolie
Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Anora
Challengers
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
This is the toughest category to predict. I think there are four contenders in this category: Anora, Emilia Perez, The Substance, and Wicked. I would rank The Substance last of those; while I think it will win a prize, I do not think it will win Picture. Wicked is a strong contender here, it has 4 nominations and the Globes like musicals — but this film missed a Director nomination, and Wicked seems to be more of a success with American critics and audiences. I think this will come down to Anora and Emilia Perez. I think this is where Anora takes it, but watch out for a spoiler here!
What Will Win: Anora
Spoiler: Emilia Perez or Wicked
Best Actor in a Motion Picture Comedy or Musical
Nominees:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Gabrielle LaBelle, Saturday Night
Jesse Plemmons, Kinds of Kindness
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
I see a lot of folks on Goldderby are going for Eisenberg, and I just do not buy this. It’s such a subtle performance, and that is one thing the Globes do not tend to go for. I think this award is between Stan (who is a double nominee), Hugh Grant and, Glen Powell. I am going to lean into the double nominee Stan, with Grant as the spoiler.
Who Will Win: Sebastian Stan
Spoiler: Hugh Grant
Best Actress in a Motion Picture Comedy or Musical
Nominees:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Zendaya, Challengers
This feels like a list closer to the Oscar 5, unlike Drama Actress. Madison and Gascon fit that “discovery” winner they can go for here, so it could be one of them. I do not think we should count out Erivo, either (I actually think she’s second). But I do think this is where The Substance takes the prize.
Who Will Win: Demi Moore
Spoilers: Erivo, Madison
Predictions on Other Categories
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Best Director: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Best Screenplay: Anora
Best Non-English Language Film: Emilia Perez
Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot
Best Score: Conclave
Best Song: “El Mal,” Emilia Perez
Which films do YOU think will take home Golden Globes on Sunday? Leave a comment below!
